Bitcoin Breaks Back into Rising Channel, Sees Potential for Record Prices
On the weekly timeframe of Bitcoin's price chart, a rising channel has been visible since 2019. Although Bitcoin closed below this channel for several months, it has now broken back into the channel and is holding steady above its lower boundary.
This could be due in part to the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) band, which Bitcoin reacted from before reclaiming the channel. Yang, an analyst, believes that fundamental macros can continue to support Bitcoin's rise at least until the midterm elections on November 3rd.
The Federal Reserve still has reason to avoid aggressively hiking interest rates, and the broader macro backdrop has recently become more supportive of risk assets. US markets have historically shown some seasonality around midterm elections, where weakness earlier in the year can be followed by stronger performance in Q3 and Q4.
Yang notes that even with this potential support, Bitcoin's price action on the daily timeframe does not yet show a major structural change, and $103K remains a significant overhead resistance. The weekly channel also gives some extreme upside levels, including roughly $200K at the midline and $600K near the top of the channel.
These prices represent a 2.5x and 7.6x increase in Bitcoin's market cap, respectively, which would put it on the same level as assets like Nvidia and half of the Mag7. While Yang is not ready to assume this will happen within the remaining months of Q4, he believes that Bitcoin can reach these levels in the future.