Bitcoin Breaks Free of Four-Year Cycle Logic Amid Rising Institutional Influence

The Bitcoin market is undergoing a significant transformation, moving away from its traditional four-year cycle logic. Analysts believe that this shift is driven by macroeconomic factors and institutional involvement in the crypto space.

In April 2024, the block reward for Bitcoin halved, reducing the annual new supply to approximately 164,250 coins, accounting for only 0.82% of the total circulating supply. By the next halving in 2028, this number is expected to further decline to 82,125 coins, with a proportion of 0.41%, indicating a significant diminishing trend in the supply shock effect.

Meanwhile, institutional channels have accumulated holdings of over 2.7 million Bitcoin, more than 16 times the total annual output of miners. This has caused the marginal impact of new miner supply on the market to weaken, and institutional holdings now dominate the market.