Bitcoin Bull Market Confirmed if Price Closes Above Key Threshold

CryptoQuant has declared that Bitcoin is in a new bull market, but there's one condition for confirmation. A daily close above $83,000, the 365-day moving average, would seal the deal.

The firm's Bull Score has skyrocketed from 30 to 80 in just a week, its most bullish reading since October 6, 2025, when BTC traded at $124,000. Eight of CryptoQuant's 10 valuation metrics now show as bullish, with spot demand expanding at its fastest monthly pace since late December.

However, some long-term holders are already taking profits, with weekly net realized profits reaching a 2026 record of nearly $1 billion. Darkfost noted that these sales have been offset by counterbalancing demand, holding up BTC. But the firm also flagged signs of strain, including trader unrealized profit at 20.5%, the highest since June 2025, and a record $614 million in whale realized profits on August 20.

Glassnode mapped the market differently, finding that every overhead structure now sits between $81,000 and $86,000. The firm framed the move as a staged recovery, with long-term holder supply filling the $83,000 to $86,000 band. Confirmation would require a settled close beyond $83,300 with ETF demand holding.