Bitcoin Capitulation Phase Hits Longest Stretch Since FTX Collapse

Bitcoin's on-chain 'capitulation' phase has reached its longest stretch since the FTX collapse, according to Glassnode. The firm's composite cycle-tracking framework shows that a large share of Bitcoin price-related indicators have remained in their most defensive, low-conviction stage through 2026.

The heatmap uses a basket of 45 indicators, heavily incorporating investor profitability across short-term (STH) and long-term (LTH) holders. Glassnode's co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said the current period sits in its coldest stretch since FTX but still not at the unanimous deep-blue level that historically marked cycle floors.

Glassnode reported stronger network engagement, including daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moving above upper statistical bands. This suggests a degree of market function is returning even if the broader cycle signal still shows capitulation characteristics.