Bitcoin Could Fall to $45,000 in Early Q4 2026, Analyst Warns

Bitcoin's recent recovery is being tested by an analyst who predicts that it could fall to $45,000 by early October 2026. This forecast comes from an analysis comparing the current market cycle with previous crypto exchange failures, including BitMEX's announced closure.

The analysis notes that high-profile exchange failures have repeatedly occurred during bear market phases, and that Bitcoin has traded just above its historical Realized Price Buy Zone in the past. The rising 100-month moving average is also seen as a sign of a potential capitulation phase.

While this bearish outlook contrasts with improving institutional demand, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recently recording their strongest inflow streak of 2026 and attracting nearly $1 billion, analysts remain focused on whether Bitcoin can defend the $63,800 support zone in the coming days.