Bitcoin Cycle Shift: Institutional Capital Replaces Halving as Price Driver

The traditional view of Bitcoin's price cycles is facing scrutiny as institutional capital reshapes the market. On-chain analyst Willy Woo suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning towards a six-to-eight year cycle, driven by debt and liquidity conditions rather than halving events.

Woo argues that each halving now removes a smaller slice of new supply from circulation, diminishing its power to dictate broader price cycles. With the next halving in early 2028 expected to cut annual new issuance to about 0.4% of existing supply, Woo believes the market is shifting towards a more traditional financial system rhythm.

The rise of U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) is one indicator of this shift. These products now hold close to 1.3 million BTC, representing over 6% of circulating supply, and public companies with at least 1,000 BTC collectively own over a million additional units.

Galaxy Research argues that the four-year cycle remains visible in the data, but notes that its intensity has decreased. Previous bear markets produced drawdowns of approximately 85%, 84%, and 77%, while the recent decline was only around 53%.