Bitcoin Cycles Shift as Halving Impact Weakens
Popular on-chain analyst Willy Woo has suggested that Bitcoin's four-year cycle may be changing, influenced by debt and liquidity conditions in traditional financial markets.
The halving event, which occurs every four years, has historically prompted significant price movements in Bitcoin. However, with the latest halving in April 2024, new BTC issuance dropped to approximately 0.8% of the existing supply per year, weakening its ability to dictate broader price cycles.
Woo argues that as the supply shock diminishes, the market may shift towards a six-to-eight-year cycle, mirroring traditional financial markets' short-term debt cycle.
This perspective is supported by Fidelity Digital Assets, who questioned in a report last year whether Bitcoin's maturing market could produce more gradual rallies and corrections rather than violent boom-and-bust cycles.