Bitcoin Defies Odds Near $78K as Miner Buy Signal Flashes Positive

Bitcoin's price has held steady near $78K despite ETF outflows and derivatives selling. A miner buy signal, tracked by 10x Research, has flashed positive in 8 of its last 10 occurrences, with a median return of 58.6%. On-chain capital measures have improved, indicating fresh capital entering the market.

The Realized Cap Change indicator has risen to 0.98, above the neutral area, and points to measured capital inflows. This contrasts with earlier periods, such as late 2024 and early 2025, when sharp inflow periods pushed the indicator much higher during stronger upward trends.

Bitcoin's price is currently testing short-term technical levels and attempting to reclaim its range after closing below the 50-week EMA. A weekly close above this average would reduce immediate pressure from the earlier breakdown. However, a rejection could turn the EMA into resistance, keeping sellers active.