Bitcoin Encryption Breakthrough Now 49% Likely Within 10 Years

A recent survey by the Global Risk Institute has found that the likelihood of breaking Bitcoin's encryption using quantum computing within 10 years is now 49%. The seventh annual Quantum Threat Timeline Report surveyed 26 international experts and found a significant increase in the estimated probability.

Half of the respondents placed the 10-year probability at roughly 50% or higher, with six rating it above 70%. By contrast, at the 15-year mark, nearly all experts (18 out of 26) assessed the likelihood of breaking encryption as 50% or above. At 20 years, near-certainty prevails, with 92% of respondents putting the probability at 50% or higher.

The report's findings have significant implications for Bitcoin and other major blockchains that rely on elliptic curve cryptography to secure transactions. A sufficiently powerful quantum machine could theoretically derive private keys from public keys, undermining signature schemes that authenticate every online transfer.