Bitcoin Encryption Breakthrough Predicted Within 10 Years

A survey of quantum computing experts has revealed that breaking Bitcoin encryption within 10 years is now considered a 49% likelihood, according to the Global Risk Institute's seventh annual Quantum Threat Timeline Report.

The report, authored by Dr. Michele Mosca and Dr. Marco Piani of evolutionQ, polled 26 international experts from academia and industry across North America, Europe, Asia, and Oceania.

The survey found that half of the respondents placed the 10-year probability at roughly 50% or higher, with six rating it above 70%. By contrast, by 20 years, nearly all respondents (92%) believed a cryptographically relevant quantum computer was likely to emerge.

The findings have significant implications for Bitcoin and other major blockchains that rely on elliptic curve cryptography. A sufficiently powerful quantum machine could theoretically derive private keys from public keys, undermining signature schemes that authenticate transactions.