Bitcoin Enters Longest Capitulation Phase Since FTX Blow-up

A recent analysis by onchain analytics platform Glassnode suggests that Bitcoin is experiencing its longest capitulation phase since the FTX blow-up in late 2022.

The 'Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap' created by Rafael Schultze-Kraft, co-founder of Glassnode, tracks 45 key indicators and has been in a 'capitulation' zone for most of 2026. This is the longest such period since November 2021, when the heatmap first turned blue after a euphoric phase.

Capitulation is marked by a majority blue heatmap on the tool, indicating a period of market downturn and bearish sentiment. The last time Bitcoin experienced capitulation was in late 2022, coinciding with the collapse of FTX and a price bottom of $15,600.

Schultze-Kraft notes that while the heatmap is currently in its coldest stretch since FTX, it has yet to reach the deep blue zone that marked previous bear-market bottoms. He emphasizes that certain metrics change behavior over time and require nuanced interpretation for cycle signals.