Bitcoin Enters Longest Capitulation Phase Since FTX Collapse

Bitcoin is experiencing its longest 'capitulation' phase since the collapse of FTX in late 2022, according to onchain analytics platform Glassnode. This period of market downturn has been ongoing for most of 2026.

The Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap, created by Glassnode's co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft, tracks 45 price metrics and shows a 'capitulation' phase throughout the year. A majority blue heatmap indicates this phase, with red signifying euphoria near cycle peaks.

Schultze-Kraft notes that while Bitcoin is in its coldest stretch since FTX, it has not yet reached the deep blue that previously marked bear-market bottoms. In November 2022, Bitcoin's price hit a low of $15,600, and the heatmap flipped to blue for most of that year.

In addition to basic price gauges like market cap, the heatmap focuses on the profitability of the Bitcoin investor base, dividing it into short-term (STH) and long-term (LTH) holders. Certain metrics change their behavior over time, requiring a nuanced reading when used for cycle signals.