Bitcoin Enters 'Rektember' with 66% Fed Rate-Hike Probability

Bitcoin (BTC) opened September with a 1% decline, pulling back below $78,000 as traders weighed a fresh set of macroeconomic pressures against the momentum built up over the previous month.

August marked BTC's strongest monthly performance since November 2024, with a gain of roughly 25%, and its best August since 2017, according to LMAX Group Market Strategist Joel Kruger.

The calendar itself presents a headwind. Since 2013, September has been Bitcoin's weakest month on average, producing a loss of roughly 3% and generating only five positive monthly closes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole speech to stress elevated inflation, which sparked a sell-off in government bonds across global markets. The US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.784%, reaching a new cycle high.