Bitcoin Faces Crucial Price Threshold to Avoid Mining Revenue Squeeze
The upcoming Bitcoin price movement will have a significant impact on mining revenue as the network prepares for its next difficulty adjustment.
A mempool.space reading from September 14 projected a 4.6976% increase in difficulty, which would require a new level of around 133.44 trillion. To offset this increase, Bitcoin's price needs to reach approximately $82,877 or $82,900 at current fees and inputs.
This breakeven threshold is not a price forecast but rather a necessary condition for miners to maintain their revenue. The August price recovery coincided with an improvement in mining revenue, but the network is preparing to reclaim part of that gain.
The effect of the difficulty adjustment will not be uniform across machines, and the efficiency line will divide the fleet. A model based on Hashrate Index's $39.25 hashprice at $79,020 shows that machines below 30.5 J/TH cover power in all scenarios, while those above 34.6 J/TH fail to do so even in the $84,000 case.
The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting on September 16 may also impact Bitcoin price, which can change dollar hashprice immediately. The outcome of the difficulty adjustment will depend on various factors, including BTC price, fees, and uptime.