Bitcoin Faces Crucial Tests in Inflation Data, Fed Decision
Bitcoin's price is currently hovering around $78,000 and is facing a series of upcoming macroeconomic events that could impact its value. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release August inflation data on September 11, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision to raise interest rates.
The Fed's calendar confirms that officials meet on September 15-16, with the decision and press conference on September 16. The CME FedWatch currently puts the probability of a September hike at 60.4%, while a Reuters poll found that 65 of 93 economists expect the Fed to hold its 3.50% to 3.75% range.
Glassnode's analysis suggests that Bitcoin is already inside the decision zone, with thresholds ranging from $62,000 to $86,000 against priced-in macro conditions and potential CPI, Fed, oil, and geopolitical surprises. The True Market Mean sits near $76,600, while the deeper accumulation floor is $62,000 to $65,000.
According to Glassnode's framework, a sustained move through $86,000 would indicate that Bitcoin has absorbed a large block of overhead supply and pushed major institutional holdings back toward profit. On the other hand, a loss of $76,600 would signal that the floor under the recent rally was weakening.