Bitcoin Faces Fed Week With Record-Low Downside Protection
Bitcoin's price has been stuck near $65,000 for most of July, and analysts at Bitfinex say it's due to a lack of downside protection. According to them, the 30-day put skew fell from 6.5 volatility points on July 14 to 2.2 on July 23, giving the market its lowest downside protection since June.
The Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for Wednesday, is seen as the event most likely to move Bitcoin's price. The CME FedWatch tool has priced in a 33.7% chance of a rate hike and a 66.3% chance of no change, which could be bad news for Bitcoin.
Bitfinex analysts believe that there will be a supply wall at $68,000, where the prices of 3.55 million BTC bought in the last six to twelve months cluster. If the price rises above this level and funding is below 15% annualized, it could turn holders from sellers to buyers.