Bitcoin Faces Hawkish Test as ETF-Led Rally Hits Resistance

Bitcoin's surge above $81,000 has been driven by more than just leverage. Regulated ETF inflows and macro relief have supported the move, analysts say.

Last week, U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs drew about $1.9 billion in net inflows, while spot ether ETFs attracted $697.2 million, according to SoSoValue data. This marked the strongest week for these categories since October 2025.

The macro backdrop also helped. The U.S. Treasury's decision to increase liquidity support buybacks for longer-dated nominal coupon securities eased pressure in long-duration bonds and fueled the 'debasement trade', a market narrative where investors seek scarce assets such as bitcoin when confidence in fiat purchasing power or fiscal stability weakens.

While the technical structure remains constructive, Bitcoin is beginning to look stretched. Analysts warn that a convincing break above $80,000-$81,250 resistance zone would strengthen the case for another leg higher, but a loss of the $78,000 support level could deepen the correction toward $75,000 to $77,000.