Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Test Near $80,000 Threshold

Bitcoin's price trajectory is at a critical juncture as it approaches the 50-week moving average near $80,000. This threshold has become a decisive battleground for both bulls and bears, according to cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen. On one hand, several bullish signals indicate that the worst may be over, including a weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) at historical lows, substantial monthly RSI cooling, long-term holder accumulation near cycle-bottom levels, and a recent Golden Cross.

However, bearish indicators have not fully reset, with the Puell Multiple, MVRV Z-Score, and market-cap-to-thermocap ratio remaining above prior bear-market troughs. Bitcoin has also not traded below its realized price during the current cycle, a phenomenon that occurred in previous bear markets. Whale activity has stayed muted compared to earlier cycle lows.

Cowen believes that sustained weekly closes above $80,000 would strengthen the bull case and lower the odds of another major decline. A rejection, however, would keep the door open for a fourth-quarter low in October or November. In a deeper selloff scenario, Bitcoin could revisit the $53,000 realized price level, while a more extreme downside case would see a test of the $37,000 to $38,000 range.