Bitcoin Faces Make-or-Break Week Above $68,300

Bitcoin's price has been hovering around $67,000-$68,000 on Thursday, just below the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA) of approximately $68,300. This level is significant because it has historically separated mid-cycle corrections from prolonged bear markets.

In the past two cycles - 2018 and 2022 - a weekly close below the 200-week EMA followed by a failed retest of the level from below triggered what analyst Rekt Capital termed 'bearish acceleration,' resulting in steeper and more sustained price declines. To avoid repeating this pattern, Bitcoin must close the week above $68,300.

However, not all indicators point to further losses. The Mayer Multiple, a ratio of price to the 200-day moving average, has dropped to approximately 0.6, according to CryptoQuant data. This reading is considered historically one of the best buy signals in Bitcoin history by Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments.

The broader market context is deteriorating, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shedding roughly $6 billion in net outflows since November 2025, according to CoinShares data. Standard Chartered has lowered its near-term target to $50,000 while keeping a year-end call of $100,000.