Bitcoin Futures Basis Trails Treasury Yield in Rare Selloff

Bitcoin's three-month futures basis has underperformed the 2-year Treasury yield since February, mirroring only one previous period that concluded at a cycle low. This prolonged underperformance has significant implications for market conditions, compressing both market depth and volumes.

The reduced liquidity affects price prediction models, making it more challenging to forecast BTC's value. The current bearish structure on the 4-hour chart shows BTC trading below its EMA50 resistance at $63,856.89, while the MACD golden cross hints at building momentum.

With a neutral RSI reading of 44.84 and price within the Bollinger bands, analysts expect a likely probe of lower support near $61,956.33 before any sustained advance.