Bitcoin Futures Carry Trade Loses Allure as Traders Earn Less Than Treasuries

The bitcoin futures carry trade has lost its allure as traders now earn less than 3% in returns, compared to an average of 3.8% on two-year U.S. Treasuries.

This marks a significant shift from the 2021 bull market when the trade yielded over 20%, making it a lucrative arbitrage play.

The collapse of the bitcoin futures basis has been ongoing since February 2026, with the three-month futures basis underperforming the two-year Treasury note for 157 consecutive days.

This trend is not just limited to the carry trade; trading volumes in bitcoin futures have also plummeted from a peak of $1.47 trillion in February 2026 to around $880 million in July, according to Coinglass.