Bitcoin Futures Carry Trade Loses Steam Amid Market Maturity

The Bitcoin futures carry trade has turned into a losing proposition for traders, as it now yields less than short-term U.S. Treasury notes.

In February 2021, this trade consistently yielded over 20% returns during the bull market, but since February 2026, it has paid out less than the average 3.8% yield on two-year Treasuries, currently around 3%.

The three-month bitcoin futures basis has trailed the two-year Treasury note for 157 consecutive days, one of the longest such stretches on record, according to data from Glassnode.

This collapse in carry trade yields has coincided with a sharp drop in trading volumes, which peaked at $1.47 trillion in February 2026 and fell to around $880 million by July, Coinglass reports.