Bitcoin Hits $83K Ceiling Amidst Weakening Selling Pressure

Bitcoin has risen significantly over the past 21 trading days, climbing 23% while equities barely moved and remain down 10% year-to-date. Core inflation has fallen to a two-year low of 2.5%, yet yields remain at cycle highs.

The long-term holder cost basis distribution suggests that the ceiling lies between $83,000 and $86,000, with spot price approaching but not quite touching this level. The market has rebuilt a floor directly beneath spot, while the ceiling remains untouched.

Selling pressure is weaker than usual on the push higher, with long-term holders largely absent from this round of selling. Measured inflation data does not support the bond market's tilt toward tighter policy, as the gap between household expectations and actual data is the widest in three years.