Bitcoin Left Behind as Global Equities Reach Record Highs

Global equities are reaching record highs, with the S&P 500 trading between $7,600 and $7,763. The Nasdaq is also experiencing double-digit gains in 2026 due to strong tech earnings and AI enthusiasm. Bitcoin, however, is lagging behind at around $60,000, down roughly 30% year-to-date and about 48% below its October 2025 all-time high of over $126,000.

The rally in global equities can be attributed to corporate earnings holding up, geopolitical risk easing with improved U.S.-Iran relations, and AI-driven tech names attracting capital. Additionally, the global M2 money supply has climbed to approximately $135 trillion, which historically is beneficial for risk assets, including crypto.

Bitcoin's performance is puzzling given the current liquidity conditions, which are typically conducive to its price increase. The mining dynamics also play a role, as the hashrate hit all-time highs in 2026, indicating that miners are committing significant resources to the network despite the declining price. This creates persistent sell-side pressure and consistent selling into a soft market.

The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 typically exceeds 70%, making the current divergence unusual. Options positioning has also been flagged as a contributing factor to Bitcoin's stickiness in the current range, with heavy open interest at certain strike prices acting like gravitational pull on spot price.