Bitcoin May Abandon Four-Year Cycle for Six to Eight Year Debt Cycle

On-chain analyst Willy Woo has sparked debate among crypto enthusiasts after suggesting that Bitcoin may be transitioning away from its traditional four-year cycle and towards a six to eight year debt cycle similar to traditional finance (TradFi).

The claim comes as Bitcoin nears $78,011 following an August rebound, down roughly 38% from its all-time high of $126,198. Woo argues that the mechanism driving the four-year cycle has become too small to matter, with issuance running at near 0.8% of supply since April 2024 and expected to drop to around 0.4% after the 2028 halving.

For comparison, gold miners added about 1.7% to above-ground stock in 2025, according to World Gold Council data. Fidelity Digital Assets has also reached a similar conclusion, finding that volatility is declining even as Bitcoin sets record highs due to maturation and the introduction of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Woo suggests that this transition aligns with TradFi's six to eight year debt cycle, which involves periods of credit expansion followed by tightening. In his model, the Federal Reserve cuts rates after a downturn, leading to cheap credit, increased borrowing and spending, rising earnings, asset prices, and ultimately inflation.

However, some argue that Bitcoin has yet to face a true business-cycle downturn and that the old script is still running on time. The next test may be close, with a 60% chance of a 25 bps rate hike during the September FOMC meeting, according to CME Group data.