Bitcoin May Enter Accumulation Phase by November, VanEck Flags Eight Capitulation Signals

Asset manager VanEck believes that Bitcoin may be entering an accumulation phase from September to November, similar to prior bear cycles. Eight out of 12 capitulation indicators tracked by the firm were still active as of August 12, marking 10 months since Bitcoin's peak in October 2025.

The same threshold would lead to seven signals, and VanEck kept the drawdown rule separate due to institutional ownership and demand making the drawdown for ETPs holding spot Bitcoin likely shallower than bear cycles in prior years. The framework identifies a late-cycle stress better than any precise market bottom or recovery date.

Despite this, fund flows tell a different story, with US spot Bitcoin ETPs receiving roughly $663 million in new investments over the 30-day measurement period, negating part of the $2.4 billion in outflows from the prior month. Long-term holders can be a counterbalance, and Bitcoin held longer than one year decreased by 356,534 BTC over the last 30 days to 11.84 million BTC (59.1% of circulating supply).