Bitcoin May Gain if AI Boom Bursts into Credit Crisis

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, believes that the AI infrastructure boom could end as a credit crisis rather than an equity collapse like the dot-com bubble. In his essay 'Situationship,' published on August 4, 2026, Hayes argues that AI infrastructure resembles leveraged real estate, making a future downturn a credit crisis.

The U.S. hyperscalers continue to raise capital spending as cloud demand and artificial intelligence workloads expand rapidly. Alphabet raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $195 billion to $205 billion amid growing demand. Federal Reserve officials held rates at 3.5% to 3.75%, with no AI rescue program announced.

Hayes expects an eventual slowdown in data center construction, which could expose weak borrowers and financiers, prompting government intervention and broader monetary easing. He believes the resulting liquidity could support a renewed Bitcoin bull market.