Bitcoin May Have Already Bottomed, Grayscale Says Macro Forces Matter More
Bitcoin's price could be near its bottom, according to Grayscale, which argues that macroeconomic forces are now more influential than traditional market cycles. The four-year cycle theory suggests that Bitcoin will follow previous bear markets and reach a low around one year after a cyclical peak or roughly two and a half years after a halving event. However, Grayscale believes the crypto asset has matured and is increasingly driven by broader economic forces.
The firm notes that previous bear markets coincided with slowing economic growth and rising real interest rates, and this year's downturn has unfolded alongside shifting expectations for US Federal Reserve policy and higher real interest rates. If the Fed refrains from further rate hikes and economic growth remains resilient, BTC's price may have already reached its low.
Other analysts also support the idea that Bitcoin's bottom may be in. Crypto trader Killa believes the market structure suggests a bottom is near, while analyst Ali Martinez notes that the current technical setup has historically identified a dominant accumulation zone with a favorable risk-to-reward profile for spot BTC buyers. Despite this, some experts still expect further decline towards the $40,000-$50,000 range.