Bitcoin May Have Hit Bottom, but BOJ Rate Hike Looms

Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong believes Bitcoin has likely hit its bottom at around $60k, despite the asset's ongoing decline in 2026. Armstrong remains 'long on Bitcoin' and predicts a 'much higher' price by 2030, comparing it to 'the new digital gold'. This bullish tone is in contrast to some analysts who caution that the market may not have reached its bottom yet.

Benjamin Cowen, founder of Into the Cryptoverse, suggests that the time-based capitulation matters more than price. Historically, bear markets typically last between 50 and 60 weeks, and we are currently at week 35. However, Cowen notes that there is an exception to this rule, pointing to the 2019-2020 bear market which ended abruptly when it reached a 'price-based capitulation'.

The near-term catalyst for the market's movement may come from Tokyo, where the Bank of Japan is expected to raise its standard interest rate to 1% from 0.75% on Tuesday. This could lead to forced liquidations and deleveraging across markets as yen-funded carry trades are unwound.