Bitcoin Momentum Falters as ETF Flows Turn Bearish
Bitcoin's price momentum is showing signs of weakening, mirroring a pattern seen earlier this year. While BTC reached its highest wick at $66k and could potentially move towards the $70k-$75k range by the end of the quarter, nearly 90% of its gains came in July, leaving August with much weaker momentum.
Historically, Bitcoin has closed March and April up over 1.84% and 11.8%, respectively, but then declined in May and June by more than 3% and 20%. If this pattern repeats, BTC could see a similar loss of momentum through the rest of Q3 and into Q4.
On-chain data is also hinting at a similar setup, with rising Bitcoin Open Interest but weak spot demand. This suggests that current price action may be driven more by leverage than buying power, similar to what occurred during the March cycle.
The lack of aggressive U.S.-based buying and bearish trends in Bitcoin ETF flows are further supporting this view. The largest daily outflow of August so far has seen over $140 million in net outflows from BTC's ETFs, marking a significant shift in institutional demand.