Bitcoin Nears Cycle Bottom but History Suggests One More Shakeout

Crypto expert Benjamin Cowen believes Bitcoin (BTC) is nearing the end of its bear market, but history suggests it may face one more shakeout before establishing a cycle bottom. According to Cowen, Bitcoin continues to behave similarly to previous four-year cycles, with the current cycle mirroring the pattern seen two cycles ago.

Cowen pointed out that in each of the previous cycles, Bitcoin's price peaked around day 1,069 and 1,059 from their respective cycle lows. This time around, the price topped at a similar window, suggesting a possible repeat pattern. The current bear market is roughly 25% of its duration, with an average bottom arriving around day 406.

Cowen estimates that Bitcoin's next major bottom may occur between late September and mid-December, with October representing a plausible scenario. He also notes that the S&P 500 declined by about 6% in 2018 while Bitcoin plummeted by around 73%, demonstrating that record or near-record equity prices do not necessarily translate into strength for crypto.

Cowen has started accumulating Bitcoin below $60,000, but advises investors with longer time horizons to focus on positioning themselves for the next cycle rather than perfectly timing the bottom. While he acknowledges that history may suggest otherwise, Cowen believes it's essential to be prepared for potential lower prices in the short term.