Bitcoin Nears Cycle Lows Amid Weakening Valuation Signals

Bitcoin's price has dropped to its lowest valuation band in the rainbow model, trading at 66% below its long-term trend price. This indicates a potential accumulation phase but not necessarily a confirmed market bottom.

The current cycle duration is close to previous periods when the market bottomed out, yet some valuation metrics like MVRV suggest prices haven't fallen as deeply as before.

Moreover, Bitcoin's price is decoupling from rising global liquidity (M2), which weakes traditional cycle timing signals. This divergence means liquidity no longer strongly supports Bitcoin's price movements, making it harder to confirm a market bottom despite cycle timing alignment.