Bitcoin OGs Take Long Positions Again Amid Elevated Leverage

CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju believes that Bitcoin's OG traders have experienced their most profitable cycle ever. This is due to a significant shift in who absorbed selling pressure, with demand from spot ETFs and DATs taking on a larger role rather than exchange traders.

This structural change helped push unrealized profits among Binance traders to nearly three times the levels seen at the 2021 market top. However, these gains also fueled substantial leverage, which is now being flushed from the system as Bitcoin trades around the same price range as two years ago.

Ju points out that while leverage remains elevated compared to pre-ETF levels, it has decreased since its peak. He expects futures leverage to rise if spot Bitcoin ETF inflows strengthen again, potentially leading to larger price swings as institutional spot demand combines with increasingly aggressive derivatives positioning.

The taker buy/sell ratio on exchanges such as OKX and others suggests that some veteran traders are taking long positions again, but Ju cautions against treating this as confirmation of a cycle bottom.