Bitcoin One-Year Holding Return Hits Historic Low at -49% as Analysts Warn Against Buying
Bitcoin's one-year holding return has plummeted to -49%, a level that historically marks bear market lows. However, analysts warn against calling a bottom based on this metric alone.
The 365-day holding return measures the percentage change in Bitcoin's price over the past year. Currently, it stands at approximately 0.514, indicating that Bitcoin is trading at about 51% of its value from a year ago.
In previous bear markets, including those in 2014-2015 and 2022, the one-year holding return remained negative for extended periods before eventually recovering. This suggests that while a -49% return may signal deep bearish sentiment, it is not a definitive bottom signal.
The current market setup, with Bitcoin trading below its 100-day moving average of approximately $66,500 and its 200-day moving average of about $71,800, indicates that the market could still face further downside. The daily relative strength index (RSI) stands at roughly 42.5, which is below the neutral 50 level but not yet in oversold territory.