Bitcoin Options Expiry Falls Short of Predicted Rebound
Bitcoin's recent price action has been closely watched by traders and analysts as it navigated through its $2.24 billion Friday options expiry. According to a study published in Finance Research Letters, Bitcoin tends to fall before expiry and then rebound during the following two hours when at-the-money open interest is high. However, this pattern did not seem to play out on September 11, 2026.
The Deribit exchange's $77,234 delivery price for the expiring options was calculated using a 30-minute time-weighted average of its Bitcoin index from 07:30 to 08:00 UTC. As the expiry approached, Bitcoin fell as low as $76,000 before recovering back toward $77,500.
Deribit's official settlement rules dictate that options expire at 08:00 UTC. The study found a statistically significant tendency for Bitcoin to fall in the hour before expiry and reverse during the following two hours when at-the-money open interest ranked in the top decile. However, this pattern was not observed on September 11.