Bitcoin Options Market Hits Three-Year Extreme as Global Economy Surges

Bitcoin's options market has reached an extreme defensive positioning since the FTX collapse in November 2022, despite the absence of any comparable fundamental crisis in either crypto markets or the broader economy. According to Binance Research's weekly report, this is evident from the BTC options 25-delta skew index, which measures the relative cost of downside put protection versus upside calls and has hit its most negative reading since November 2022.

The current environment lacks any equivalent fundamental shock: no major exchange collapse, no regulatory crisis, no systemic failure. Binance Research argues that this degree of hedging appears disproportionate, suggesting the market may be closer to a sentiment trough than a precipice. Corroborating this, Bitcoin's Realized Profit/Loss ratio has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, typically a hallmark of forced capitulation rather than orderly distribution.

Meanwhile, the ongoing divergence between Bitcoin and rising global M2 money supply has extended beyond any prior episode in the dataset's history - a gap that Binance analysts attribute to three overlapping structural distortions. Since 2015, Bitcoin and global M2 have diverged 23 times - historically resolving within one to two months on average.