Bitcoin Options Market Hits Three-Year High in Defensive Positioning
The Bitcoin options market has reached its most defensive positioning since the FTX collapse in November 2022, according to Binance Research's weekly report. Despite this, there is no comparable fundamental crisis in either crypto markets or the broader economy.
The BTC options 25-delta skew index, which measures the relative cost of downside put protection versus upside calls, has hit its most negative reading since November 2022. This degree of hedging appears disproportionate and may indicate that the market is closer to a sentiment trough than a precipice.
Binance Research notes that Bitcoin's Realized Profit/Loss ratio has fallen below 1.0 for the first time since 2023, typically a hallmark of forced capitulation rather than orderly distribution.