Bitcoin Poised to Regain Lead Over Ethereum in Q4

The third quarter has been kind to Ethereum, but the fourth quarter is expected to be a different story. Historically, Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in Q4, with an average gain of over 77%, while Ethereum's average return on investment (ROI) for Q4 is around 18%. This seasonal disparity could become a major headwind for ETH/BTC, especially after Ethereum's strong Q3 rally.

The historical data shows that Bitcoin has outperformed Ethereum in 8 out of the last 9 Q4 cycles, with 2021 being the only exception. In addition, Bitcoin typically posts lower losses during bear markets, making it consistently resilient in both bullish and bearish environments.

Meanwhile, Ethereum's supply setup is getting increasingly tight, with only 6.06 million ETH currently on exchanges, down from 22.9 million at the June 2020 peak. This trend is accelerating, with around $350 million worth of ETH leaving exchanges over the past 96 hours.