Bitcoin Price Correction: Traders Reassess End-of-Year Targets
Bitcoin's recent rally has cooled down after reaching $80,000 for the first time since May. The price briefly dipped below $77,000 in early September. This correction comes after a strong month of gains from the broader crypto market, with Bitcoin increasing by around 23% over the last 30 days according to CoinGecko.
The strength in Bitcoin was driven by significant ETF inflows, but this momentum has since reversed, with spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds experiencing outflows in two of the last three trading days. These net outflows total more than $220 million over that period, as reported by CoinGlass.
As a result of this price drop, more optimistic forecasts for BTC have been revised downward. Last week, traders on Kalshi had priced odds of Bitcoin reaching as high as $110,000 before the end of the year at 23%. However, these odds have now decreased by over 10%, with the current probability of reaching $109,999.99 standing at just 12%.
Despite this correction, Kalshi traders still see a higher likelihood of BTC reaching $100,000 than falling to $50,000 first. The market is currently split on whether Bitcoin will hit $50,000 or $100,000 first, with the odds of '50K first' priced at 14%.