Bitcoin Price Recovery Fails to Convince Fidelity of Bear Market End
Fidelity Digital Assets has warned that Bitcoin's recent price recovery may not signal the end of its bear market. In its fourth-quarter crypto market outlook, Fidelity noted that Bitcoin posted its strongest monthly performance since November 2024 in August, with a gain of more than 25% during the third week of the month.
The firm cautioned that the rebound could represent either the early stages of a sustained market recovery or a temporary rally within a broader bear market. Historical market cycles suggest that Bitcoin's previous major bear-market low occurred in November 2022, and applying a similar four-year interval would point toward November 2026.
Fidelity warned against treating historical patterns as precise forecasting tools, noting that previous cycles have not adhered to exact four-year schedules. The firm also pointed out that Bitcoin may already have established a low in July, or prices could decline again and form another bottom in November or at a later point.
The August rally showed volatility characteristics observed around some previous bear-market endings, with a rapid move above $80,000 followed by a retreat toward $79,250. Fidelity's analysis also found that underlying digital-asset adoption continued despite weakness in overall cryptocurrency market capitalization.