Bitcoin Rally Faces Crucial Test at $80K Amid Whale Profits and Resistance

Bitcoin has surged 25% over the past seven days, reaching nearly $80,000. But according to top technical analyst Benjamin Cowen, whale profit-taking and key resistance could determine whether this rally marks a bullish reversal or another bear-market bounce.

Cowen points out that despite the rapid increase in price, his whale activity indicator shows surprisingly little participation from large holders during the latest advance. This is unusual compared to previous instances around Bitcoin's 2018 and 2022 lows, when whale activity increased substantially.

The key test for this rally will be Bitcoin's 50-week moving average, which is currently around $80,000 to $81,000. If multiple weekly closes above it occur, it could weaken the bearish case. However, rejection at this level could leave Bitcoin vulnerable to a drop toward its realized price in the low $50,000s.

CryptoQuant data also adds another test for the rally, as new whales have booked record profits of over $1.2 billion over three days. This is the largest profit-taking event ever recorded for this cohort, and it suggests that fresh demand may be absorbing whale selling. However, a drop below the Short-Term Whale Realized Price near $68,900 could suggest the rally is serving as an exit opportunity for previously underwater holders.