Bitcoin Rally Fails to Reach Bear Market Exit Thresholds

Bitcoin's recent price recovery has brought more than half of its supply back into profit, reaching 57.5% as of July 22. This is a significant increase from the cycle low of 46.2% on June 30, when prices were around $65,100. ThechessONCHAIN, author of CryptoQuant analysis, notes that this recovery is not yet sufficient to signal the end of bear markets.

Historically, previous bear markets ended only after a much larger share of Bitcoin's supply returned to profit: 69% in April 2012, 64% in November 2015, and 83% in May 2019. The current reading is below these thresholds, suggesting that the rally may still be within an ongoing bear market.

The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) stood at 0.9997, indicating that recent buyers are mostly selling at break-even instead of taking meaningful profits or losses. The analyst warns that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit would likely need to climb into the mid-60% range and remain there for longer than the failed 35-day recovery earlier this year.