Bitcoin Rebounds Amid Structural Support Despite Fears of Fed Tightening
Bitcoin's price has recovered significantly since its low of $58,000 in late June, reaching around $80,000, marking a gain of about 37% over two months.
This recovery is attributed to three key factors: the June low was deep enough to bring buyers back, ETF money started returning in August, and bond yields eased through August, loosening financial conditions for risk assets.
However, despite this positive trend, the macro backdrop remains unfriendly. The recent US jobs report showed a strong labor market, which is bad news for anyone hoping for cheap money, with odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting increasing to 59%.
The supportive factors in the market are structural rather than monetary, driven by regulatory clarity, expanding ETF complex, and post-halving supply dynamics. The SEC and CFTC have launched a joint initiative on rules for leveraged and margined crypto transactions, and Solana and XRP products have entered September with significant assets under management.