Bitcoin Recovery Hits Resistance at $79,600 and $82,800

Bitcoin is currently trading near $78,500 on the Bitstamp BTC/USD weekly chart, below its 50-week simple moving average (SMA) at $79,600 and May resistance near $82,800.

The first obstacle for Bitcoin's recovery is clearing the 50-week SMA, with a weekly close above this level necessary to return the price above an important long-term trend measure. However, even if Bitcoin successfully clears this barrier, it would still need to overcome the previous high near $82,790 before entering a stronger phase of growth.

Despite the challenges ahead, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows stronger relative momentum than during the May resistance test, with a weekly RSI in the upper 50s compared to roughly 50-52 at that time. However, this comparison is not a conventional bullish divergence, as Bitcoin's price is approaching the same broad price area with higher momentum.

The dominance of derivatives trading is evident, with futures volume approximately 15 times larger than spot volume. This does not necessarily make the advance unsustainable, but it leaves the breakout more exposed to a reversal if leveraged traders withdraw. Rising spot volume during a move above $79,600 and $82,800 would provide clearer evidence that direct buying is supporting the stronger weekly momentum.