Bitcoin Set for $70,000 Next Week as Interest Rate Hikes Loom

According to Bitget, Bitcoin's September trend is already set in motion, and $70,000 will be reached next week. The market has been gradually moving towards its anticipated positions, with prices fluctuating between 78,000 and 80,000. Yesterday, the price briefly fell below 78,000, reaching a low of 77,600 before recovering to 78,736.

The current decline can be described as a slow downward drift, with the negative impact of interest rate hikes already priced in advance. This is not good news for users taking short positions, but contract traders should pay close attention to the market's behavior. If prices stabilize above 80,000 this week, there may be some expectation for rate cuts and a clear regulatory bill.

However, if the expected rate cut turns into a hike or remains unchanged, and a clear regulatory bill triggers a market crash, Bitcoin could instantly drop by 5,000 to 10,000 points, leading to at least a threefold increase in volatility and potential gains. The current trend is the opposite of what was previously anticipated, with frenzied speculation about rate hikes giving way to a bearish stance and hedging against a waterfall drop.

The probability of a 25 basis point hike in September is 59.4%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 40.6%. This suggests that a rate cut is definitely not coming, and September offers no positive news, it's all about the bears. Contract traders only need to pay attention to the possibility of a sudden decision to keep rates steady on the day of the meeting, which could cause a brief rebound but continue the downward trend afterward.

The worst-case scenario for this year is no rate cuts, only hikes, which would likely send the crypto market into a short-term bear run. No matter the time frame, contract users shorting the market isn't a problem, simply manage your stop-loss positions, and this is an easy profit opportunity.