Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Face Controlled Loss Phase

Bitcoin's short-term holders are facing unrealized losses of around 6% relative to their average purchase price. The current market conditions suggest that a broad capitulation phase has not yet begun, according to an on-chain analysis by Axel Adler Jr.

The MVRV (Momentum Value-to-Realized Value) metric for short-term holders is at 0.94, indicating that they have been in a loss position on average for more than three months. The seven-day moving average of SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio), which tracks realized profit and loss during actual sales, stands at about 0.996.

Adler notes that while short-term holders are realizing losses, the scale is limited, making current conditions closer to a controlled loss phase than to capitulation. The key support level for Bitcoin identified by Adler is $59,300, and as long as it holds above this level, the bearish structure has not been significantly damaged.

However, if the price falls below $59,300, the risk of a deeper correction toward $49,200 could increase. On the other hand, a recovery above $67,300, the average purchase price for short-term holders, along with SOPR holding above 1, could signal a reversal in investor sentiment.