Bitcoin Slips Below 200-Week Moving Average Amid Macro Uncertainty

Bitcoin's recent recovery to the $64,000 range has sparked caution among analysts, as it finished the week trading below its 200-week simple moving average (SMA), a key long-term support level.

According to Cointelegraph, this trend line break is not just about the rebound itself but rather the fact that bitcoin plunged below the 200-week moving average in both 2022 and summer 2026, only to rebound and slip below it again. Rekt Capital pointed out that the weekly close fell short of his $63,220 target, suggesting a potential downside break.

Macro factors also remain a burden for bitcoin, with preliminary U.S. manufacturing and services purchasing managers index (PMI) readings and the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting on the horizon. Recent inflation data showed a milder trend than expected, lowering market expectations for additional rate hikes.

Japan is another focal point for risk-asset markets, with Japan's second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growing 0.3 percent from the previous quarter and 1.1 percent from a year earlier. However, private consumption fell for the first time in eight quarters, and markets are pricing in the possibility of further rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr noted that Japanese government bond yields rising above 3 percent could tighten global financial conditions and shock stocks and bitcoin. Meanwhile, internal market flows remain unfavourable for bitcoin, with spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing net outflows of $267.2 million last week.