Bitcoin Slumps 32% in First Half as Fed Expectations Shift
Bitcoin's first-half performance was marked by a 32% decline as key buying forces turned to selling, according to a report from Binance Research. The cryptocurrency fell more than 50% from its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025, and the decline coincided with losses for a third straight quarter.
The report cited changing expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve policy as a key variable behind the first-half decline. Markets had priced in steep rate cuts through August 2024, but by mid-2026 they had priced in a policy path above actual rates. They also priced in an about 80% chance of a rate hike in December.
The shift in supply-demand dynamics was more direct. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net cumulative outflows for the first time since their launch, with $4.5 billion flowing out in June alone. Corporate treasury-strategy demand also weakened, with Strategy selling 32 BTC in May and 1,363 BTC at the end of June.