Bitcoin SOPR Metric Defies Bear Market Expectations with Longest Bullish Run of the Year

Bitcoin's SOPR metric has stayed above its breakeven point of 1 for three full weeks, marking the longest bullish streak in 2026. According to data from CryptoQuant, the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) currently measures 1.002, indicating that coins are mostly being moved at a higher price compared to their previous transaction.

This signal has endured since August 19 and is seen as a sign of overall bullish market momentum. The metric can be broken down by wallet cohort to differentiate profitability between newer and older investors.

Commenting on SOPR readings for short-term holders (STHs), Checkonchain added that the current structure resembles early bull-market recoveries, where rallies back into profit tend to become buy-the-dip setups. However, David Puell of ARK Invest warns that there is still downside risk in Bitcoin's price and more evidence is needed to assume that the next bear-market floor is already in.

Puell emphasizes that SOPR signals are a key prerequisite for changing his long-term bias, stating that the metric needs to remain above 1 for an extended period. He also notes that investors must 'realize profits consistently without price going back to a new low.' Bitcoin must start putting in series of higher highs and higher lows.