Bitcoin Stuck Below $81,000 Supply Wall as US Jobs Report Looms
Bitcoin's price action is being held back by spot sell orders stacked near the $81,000 level. This resistance has repeatedly emerged and kept the price locked in a trading range. The current constraint on Bitcoin is not excessive long leverage but rather spot selling pressure near the $81,000 level, according to crypto trading firm QCP Capital.
Despite futures market leverage being relatively low, with Bitcoin futures open interest sitting near a five-month low and funding rates below 10% on an annualized basis, spot flows are turning positive again. U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw net inflows of about ₩140 billion ($103.6 million) on the 2nd and approximately ₩990 billion ($732.9 million) on the 3rd.
The market is on high alert for the U.S. August jobs report, released today, which consensus expectations call for nonfarm payrolls to rise by roughly 50,000 and the unemployment rate to come in at 4.1%. A weaker-than-expected print could dampen expectations for a September rate hike, while a stronger number could reinvigorate tightening bets.
The trajectory of U.S. long-term Treasury yields may matter more for Bitcoin's direction than the policy rate itself, according to QCP Capital. The firm said that 'over the next two weeks, the more important question is not the level of the federal funds rate but whether the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield can remain below its August peak.'